Aberdeen’s property market is set to benefit from an oil industry jobs bounce-back similar to the one which saw house prices soar in the 1990s, a law firm has predicted.
Aberdein Considine said buyers were returning to the market to take advantage of lower prices.
The firm believes a skills shortage in the industry means a new influx of workers is in the pipeline.
It says prices have reflected the fortunes of the industry for 30 years.
Aberdein Considine drew parallels with the downturn in 1985, when local property prices fell to £38,000 by 1987.
A resulting labour shortage in the supply chain in the decade which followed helped push property prices to almost £75,000 by 1997.
The firm said the time was now ripe for first-time buyers.
Robert Fraser, senior property partner at Aberdein Considine, said he believed the current market was the best buyers had experienced in 20 years – with a two-bedroom flat available for the same price as a one-bedroom in 2014.
He said: “The anticipation at the moment is that we have come through a fairly harsh market correction with the fall in the oil price. We believe that we are now bottomed out. I do think we will have something of a boom.
“Since the oil price crash of 2014-15, when the Brent Crude benchmark dropped to under $30, we have seen a gradual decline in average sale prices in both Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire.
Aberdein Considine believes the local market conditions are rare “So far this year, the average sale price in Aberdeen alone is £179,485, down around 15% on the 2014 peak.
“However, with oil now sitting above $80 – and suggestions that global events could push it higher – savvy buyers and investors are returning to the market in Aberdeen.”
He explained: “These conditions are rare in the north east – I haven’t seen a market like it since 1998 after the last real oil dip – and if history is to be repeated, then people buying at the moment are likely to see a substantial return on investment over the next five to 10 years.”
Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce chief executive Russell Borthwick predicted both Aberdeen and the wider north east region were on the brink of a resurgence.
He said: “The region’s property market has gone through a change – but the outcome is that living in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire has become much more affordable, which is great for younger people, who in particular should be taking advantage of the current market conditions.”
Published: 15-10-2018