Author: Renata Grabowsky, Principal Product Marketing Manager – Offshore Structures, DNV
Offshore wind is gaining momentum worldwide as countries work toward reducing carbon emissions and increasing energy security. Targets are becoming more ambitious — seen in pledges such as the one made at COP28 to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. Yet, these ambitions are increasingly met with economic and technical challenges. Developers are facing rising interest rates, inflation, regulatory complexity, and delays in supply chains. These factors have led to the postponement or cancellation of several projects.
Recent developments have underlined the severity of these challenges. Ørsted’s decision to cancel Hornsea 4 off the coast of East Yorkshire sent ripples across the industry, while SSE’s scaled-back investment plans in the UK highlight a recalibration of risk in a volatile financial environment. Bloomberg and Reuters have reported similar stories from other markets, citing inflation and permitting delays as key hurdles.
Despite this, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. According to DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) 2024, the cost of fixed-bottom offshore wind is projected to fall from $88 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2030 to $61 by 2050. Floating offshore wind could see a more dramatic reduction—from $280 to $82 per MWh over the same period. These trends signal long-term viability, particularly when supported by appropriate planning and design tools.
The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) 2025 Offshore Wind Report provides updated insights. It forecasts 410 GW of cumulative offshore wind capacity by 2032, with China, the UK, and the U.S. leading deployments. The report highlights that while global installations reached 12.8 GW in 2024—setting a new record—the sector is at a tipping point. Policy delays, permitting bottlenecks, and cost inflation continue to be significant barriers. Nevertheless, GWEC underscores that offshore wind remains essential to meeting climate targets, and that accelerating digital innovation is central to scaling deployment efficiently.
In regions such as Norway, electricity demand is expected to double by 2050, reaching 260 terawatt-hours. Offshore wind is considered the most scalable domestic energy source to help meet this demand. However, according to DNV, delays in new development could lead to an annual shortfall of about 10 TWh in the early 2030s.
As offshore wind moves into deeper waters and harsher marine environments, design complexity increases. Foundations must be tailored for specific conditions and turbines are larger and exposed to more dynamic forces. These shifts require design methods that account for multiple variables at early stages—where decisions have large impact on long-term project success.
Digitalization as a Strategic Tool
To tackle these intertwined challenges, the industry is increasingly leaning on digital technologies. Digitalization enables more precise design, integrated workflows, better risk management, and faster decision-making. In an environment where both margins and timelines are tight, the right software tools can be as crucial as choosing the right site—both have a profound impact on whether a project advances smoothly or becomes mired in costly revisions and delays.
Two tools in particular—Sesam and Bladed—are being used by developers, consultants, and designers to better understand how wind turbines and their supporting structures perform under real-world conditions.
Sesam is used for structural and hydrodynamic analysis of offshore assets. Originally applied in the shipbuilding and oil and gas sectors, it has been adapted to meet the specific demands of offshore wind. It enables engineers to model and assess the structural behavior of foundations under various environmental conditions for the entire project lifecycle, from early concept stage up to decommissioning.
In practical terms, this means users can test foundation performance under different scenarios and adjust design parameters before construction begins. The cloud-based compute capability allows for faster processing of complex models.
For NSG Engineering, an offshore engineering consultancy, Sesam plays a central role in their workflow. “We use Sesam to assess the structural behaviour of foundations and substructures,” said a representative from NSG. “Its modelling capabilities and analysis options give us confidence in the results, and in turn, allow us to provide reliable input to our clients.” NSG also reported a 35% reduction in engineering hours on their projects by integrating Sesam into their design and verification processes.
Bladed complements Sesam by simulating the aerodynamic, structural, and control behaviour of wind turbines. It provides engineers with the ability to evaluate how turbines respond to site-specific wind, wave, and operational conditions. This allows for early identification of design risks and opportunities for performance improvement.
By using Bladed in the design phase, developers can refine turbine configurations and control strategies based on long-term performance projections. This supports efficient use of materials and helps reduce uncertainty during certification and construction.
The software is also widely used to support turbine certification, a critical step in securing investment and stakeholder confidence. As turbines grow in size and complexity, so too does the need for accurate dynamic modelling.
The benefit of using Sesam and Bladed together is the ability to link turbine load cases directly into the structural design process. This integration ensures that foundation engineers are working with realistic and up-to-date load inputs, helping to avoid overdesign or unforeseen fatigue issues.
COWI, a global engineering consultancy, has implemented both tools across several offshore wind projects. By combining turbine simulation outputs from Bladed with structural models in Sesam, they have reduced the need for late-stage redesigns and shortened project timelines. The result is a more coherent engineering process with fewer handover errors and increased design confidence.
A Broader Shift: Toward Collaborative, Data-Informed Engineering
The offshore wind industry continues to expand, but the conditions under which it operates are changing. More demanding sites, larger turbines, and increased public and private scrutiny require better tools to support early-phase decision-making.
The use of digital tools like Sesam and Bladed reflects a broader shift towards integrated design methods. These methods do not eliminate complexity but allow engineers to work with it more effectively. They help identify constraints early and ensure that projects move forward with fewer delays and cost overruns.
As highlighted in DNV’s latest ETO report and echoed by the GWEC, the pathway to lower energy costs and scalable offshore wind depends not only on technological innovation, but on how well these tools are applied across the value chain.
By embedding simulation and structural verification into the early phases of project development, companies can improve the quality and reliability of offshore assets. As the market grows more competitive and complex, such capabilities may prove essential in distinguishing successful projects from those that stall.
For more information on DNV’s software tools for offshore engineering, visit: www.dnv.com/software/services/software-for-offshore-wind/
