Tullow Oil has issued a statement in advance of the Group's 2023 Full Year Results scheduled to be announced on 6 March
Rahul Dhir, CEO, Tullow, said, "Continued delivery of our business plan in 2023 resulted in a major inflection point as we moved from a period of investment focus to delivery of free cash flow growth. We are on track to deliver US$600mn free cash flow over the next two years to achieve our stated target of US$800mn of free cash flow from 2023 to 2025 at US$80/bbl. The debt facility agreed with Glencore is a strong endorsement of our business plan and we have no material uncovered debt maturities until May 2026. At the same time our assets are expected to deliver production growth, while we continue to maintain our laser focus on operational excellence and capital discipline."
In 2023, full year working interest production averaged 63 kboepd, including 6 kboepd of Jubilee gas. Excellent drilling performance with four Jubilee producer and three Jubilee water injection wells have been brought onstream. Start-up of Jubilee South East marked a material step up in Jubilee production that surpassed 100 kbopd. In Gabon, swap agreement and licence extensions boost reserves and centre portfolio around Tchatamba production hub.
The company generated a revenue of US$1.6bn (including US$140mn hedge costs) at an average realised oil price (post-hedging) of US$77.5/bbl. Its capital and decommissioning expenditure were US$380mn and US$70mn, respectively.
2024 outlook: focus on free cash flow generation
Group working interest production expected to average between 62 to 68 kboepd, including 7 kboepd of gas.
Five Jubilee wells (three producers and two water injectors) expected to come onstream in 2024. This will conclude the activity planned at the start of the drilling programme approximately six months ahead of schedule with excellent drilling performance.
Later in 2024, Tullow and its Joint Venture Partners intend to take a drilling break in Ghana while existing well stock sustains production at Jubilee, and TEN decline continues to be effectively minimised. Drilling is expected to resume in 2025, and the procurement process for a new rig will commence in 2024.
Activity in the non-operated portfolio will focus on infill drilling and an infrastructure-led exploration well at the Simba licence.
2024 capital expenditure of US$250mn with approximately 60% allocated to Jubilee and 25% to non-operated assets.
Decommissioning spend of US$50mn for UK and Mauritania; US$20mn provisioning for Ghana and Gabon.
Cash taxes expected to be US$350mn at US$80/bbl with payments weighted to the first half of the year.
Hedge portfolio protects 60% of forecast sales volumes at weighted average price of US$58/bbl through the year; material uncapped exposure to oil price upside from June once legacy hedges have rolled off, with 20% of sales volumes capped at weighted average price of US$114/bbl for the period June to December.
Forecast free cash flow of US$200-300mn at US$80/bbl, with the range largely driven by timing of revenue receipts for 18 to 19 cargoes lifted in Ghana during the year.
Year-end net debt expected to be less than US$1.4bin; cash gearing of net debt to EBITDAX expected to be around one times at US$80/bbl.
On track to deliver targeted US$800mn free cash flow over 2023 to 2025 period, with over US$600mn free cash flow expected to be generated over 2024 to 2025 at US$80/bbl.
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